With the AAPL Q1 earnings call scheduled for later today, the majority of analysts expect Apple to slightly beat the $84B fiscal Q1 revenue the company forecast in its revised guidance.
The most pessimistic analyst roundup has Apple coming in at exactly $84B, while others expect more, with the highest average expectation at $85.33B …
PED 3.0 has the results of four analyst surveys. The numbers in brackets are the number of estimates included within each average.
- Thomson (31): $84.00B
- PED 3.0 (20): $84.07B
- Estimize (588): $84.29B
- Visible Alpha (21): $85.33B
My own view, expressed earlier this month, is that Apple would not want to risk missing its downgraded guidance, so it has likely been conservative. I’d thus expect actual revenue to be safely above $84B, even if by a relatively small margin.
Most analysts think that the AAPL Q1 earnings (calendar Q4 2018) results are already factored into the share price, which has lost 30% of its value since the previous earnings call. However, any recovery in the AAPL price would need some good news on Q2 guidance, reports MarketWatch.
That hope may not be realised. CNBC reports that Apple may have already sold a significant number of iPhones to retailers and carriers, who won’t be placing fresh orders while they still have unsold inventory.
The AAPL Q1 earnings call won’t reveal unit sales of hardware, but will for the first time reveal its gross margin on Services, which Bernstein expects to be in the mid-60% range.
Analysts surveyed by MarketWatch are pretty evenly split between hold and buy ratings, with an average target stock price of $179.62 – 18% up on today’s value.
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